Abstract

Risk assessment in agriculture has become increasingly popular in recent years. However, dealing with it is difficult because of confusion and many uncertainties. In this paper, we develop a methodological framework for the integrative assessment of risk in an agriculture system. The major considerations are: (1) using hierarchical holographic modeling (HHM) to identify sources of risk in an agriculture system, (2) ranking and prioritizing the identified sources of risk based on their likelihood and potential consequences, (3) applying fuzzy method and optimization method to gain an integrative assessment of risk. A case study of the application with the described methodological framework is given in which we draw a conclusion that the integrative assessment of the risk in an agriculture system is high. The resulting framework in this study can serve as a model for assessing risks of agriculture, which can supply references to related organizations.

Paper Details